Atlantic Hurricane Season Arrives
By Lisa Neff
Manatee County communities are preparing for another hurricane season, with federal forecasters predicting a 60% likelihood of above-normal storm activity June through November.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s outlook for the new season comes as some coastal residents continue to recover from last year’s devastating hurricanes.
NOAA expects 13-19 named storms this season, with up to 10 potentially strengthening to hurricanes. Forecasters anticipate three to five major hurricanes reaching Category 3 status or higher, packing winds exceeding 111 mph.
NOAA maintains 70% confidence in these projections.
Their forecast is based on above-average ocean temperatures, anticipated weak wind shear and the potential northward shift of West Africa’s monsoon system, which seeds many of the Atlantic’s most powerful storms.
“The high activity era continues in the Atlantic Basin,” NOAA stated, referencing the multi-decade pattern of increased hurricane frequency that has defined recent years.
Last year’s season delivered 18 tropical storms — four more than the typical season. Eleven strengthened into hurricanes, with five reaching major hurricane status.
National Weather Service director Ken Graham, drawing on three decades of experience, stressed the importance of readiness: “This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies.”
In Florida, state emergency officials began calling for readiness early in May, observing Hurricane Preparedness Week May 4-10, followed by the Governor’s Hurricane Conference May 11-16 in West Palm Beach.
“Last year’s active hurricane season demonstrated that hurricanes bring far more hazards than just wind and rain,” said Florida Division of Emergency Management executive director Kevin Guthrie. “From tornadoes to flooding, don’t wait to update your disaster plans.”
Hurricane season begins June 1 but peak activity typically arrives in September. Still, the message from meteorologists is unambiguous: begin to prepare today.
On the web
Watch the NOAA news conference on YouTube here.
Are you ready for the season?
• Know your zone: Check if you’re in an evacuation area at floridadisaster.org/know;
• Build your kit: Seven days of food, water and meds for everyone, including pets;
• Get weather alerts: Find multiple sources for alerts, including battery-powered radio;
• Make your plan: Think about where to go, what to do, how to evacuate safely;
• Remember: You only need to evacuate tens of miles, not hundreds;
Get prepared: FloridaDisaster.org;
Get emergency alerts: FloridaDisaster.org/AlertFlorida
Get social: #HurricanePrep #FloridaReady #StaySafe